On cue and on schedule, as forecast by Dr. Barnett R. Rubin, the mighty Wurlitzer has cranked up. On September 3rd, Labor Day, Establishment éminence grise Arnaud de Borchgrave floated a practically matter-of-fact prediction about President George W. Bush's inclination to attack Iran.
The Russians and Chinese are surely noticing the propaganda offensive. Is the offensive simply a diplomatic psyop intended to extract concessions from Iran? Or is it for real, a replay of the eerily similar orchestrated progaganda offensive—crude fabrications and all—leading up to the invasion of Iraq in 2003?
The last chance to dissuade Bush from opening yet another Middle Eastern Pandora's box may rest in the hands of Chinese President Hu Jintao and Russian President Vladimir Putin, each of whom will be having a bilateral meeting with Bush on the margins of the APEC sessions.
What can we mere observers do? Obviously, not much. But we can parse every syllable from any press conferences or official statements following the meetings. We can also check the Russian and Chinese press agencies for their officially-sanctioned spin on the meetings. From AEI, the Weekly Standard, Fox News and other corporate U.S. media we will find out what the Bush Administration wishes us to know and think about the meetings. Watch for any differences in message between the White House on the one hand, and the Department of Defense (i.e., Secretary Gates) and the Department of State (Secretary Rice) on the other.
We can perhaps learn who, besides the presidents themselves and their interpreters, attended the meetings. For example, if Secretary of Defense Robert Gates is in attendance, we can probably assume that at least one participant will be able to understand whatever nuanced—or direct—message is being sent by Hu or Putin. On the other hand, if just Bush attends with his interpreter—or even if Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and National Security Adviser (and Cheney acoloyte) Stephen J. Hadley are present—we will have absolutely no reason to believe that the U.S. side will be capable of hearing and understanding the signals being delivered by Hu or Putin.
If there are joint press conferences, we can watch the body language closely. Will Bush appear to be physically and emotionally isolated from the others? Will he walk into another locked door, as he once did in Beijing? Will he give someone an inappropriate back rub, as he once did with German Prime Minister Angela Merkel? Will he throw up in a fellow leader's lap, as his father once did in Tokyo? Will the facial expressions and body language of the other leaders reveal contempt and scorn for the generally overmatched Bush?
Watch. Listen. Read. This week's APEC Summit may be the last chance for other major powers to give the Bush Administration a sharp, reality-based correction before the neocon ideologues propel the Middle East, and perhaps the entire planet, over the precipice.